Planets, Aristarchos, Ptolemy, Copernicus and Entrepreneurship

The power of discovery
I just came across this interesting news of one more step forward in the discovery of earth-like planets elsewhere in our galaxy. The increasing frequency of news like this supports the idea that we are getting close to proving once more that our plane is not only "not the center" but is also not unique, in which case various "other life" considerations inevitably follow.

The Greek philosopher Aristarchus of Samos had already figured the "not center" idea in 43 BC; he was ignored for 1500 years and even today is hardly given any credit.
Aristotle and Ptolemy with the flawed but more intuitive idea of Geocentricism (earth at the center of the universe), and with a better "sale pitch" got and controlled mind-share for 1500 years.
Copernicus and Galileo eventually sold Heliocentrism (sun at the center of the planets), a v2.0 of Aristarchus ideas, with better "showmanship" (drop balls from the Tower of Pisa and incarceration for heresy) to win the  mind-share race.

Centrism and Entrepreneurship
Humans would seem to have an instinct to imagine ourselves unique as much as permitted by ignorance, dogma and lack of facts. Possibly there is a survival value in brains intuitively "provincial" since it would limit the amount of data to be dealt with at any given moment: worry about immediate local threats (tigers), less about future and distant ones. With that trait, individually, we can intuitively and locally develop the notion that what we do is unique.  In reality however, we just have not looked for and found our competition.

For innovators and entrepreneurs, the remedy of this blind spot is getting out (talk to customers, talk to others in the same industry) and looking (search the blogosphere, academic research and industry press). Investigation will make us discover "another planet" like us, our competition. Loss of the myth of our uniqueness will require a radical change, a new perspective just as human psychology was impacted by the Copernican revolution. Finding our competition will demand a far less self-congratulatory and more guarded state of mind (i.e.we found the tiger, now what?).

Some more lessons from Aristarchus
Just as it happened to old Aristarchus, as an entrepreneur and innovator you may well have the right answer to "the question", but the market may not be  ready for it (e.g. there is lots of that happening now in the new green energy business!).  Pursuit just the same.

Recognize the possibility that the market will eventually accept your answer, but it may be in a version 2.0 advanced by a more compelling salesman.  The antidote is to strive to become a better salesman.  Meanwhile speak ( and twitt) loudly and consistently  "around" the established thinkers (the Aristotle and Ptolemy of your day).  Don't give up, the mind-share race is won one brain at a time.

Strive to find a way to stay in the game that is not totally dependent on the disputed idea you are championing. Staying power (most often enabled by capital) is the answer to the challenge. If you go out of business pursuing only the unpopular idea you will not survive to the day when reality will prove you right beyond dispute.

Marco Messina

Two Ways To Invest in Green

In the last few weeks I attended several presentations from companies presenting their business plans and experiences as “green businesses”. Two stood out in my mind at the extremes of what’s out there for angel investors to seek. Since in some cases I signed NDAs I’ll keep all companies confidential but it may not be difficult to deduct their names with a little research and detective work.

Company1

Purpose of the presentation: Present a business plan for investment by accredited investors to raise several million dollars

The Idea behind the business (as stated in the presentation): Take advantage of the huge amount of government money promoting technological migration to a “greener” world.

Competitive advantage: Far out patent pending technologies invented by undiscovered brilliant inventors with no industry track record of delivering working products or systems – the power of the outsider to think out of the box.

Business model: promote the patents through associates, consultants and green enthusiasts, license the patents to major industry players to make and market and collect royalties

Secret sauce: patent pending untested technology that must be kept secret from the big competing interests in the industry, therefore little can be disclosed.

Use of funds: Promotional expenses, R&D to prototype and demonstrate the technology, salaries to management and marketing team, filing more patents, pay licensing fees to the inventors (50% of funds raised) for untested technologies.

Take away: Too good to be true? Perhaps so judging from the response of several attendees. The technologies presented promise a) cars running on various fuels (including H2) continuously converted on demand from water, b) energy from waste water to feed the utility grid, c) solar plant daytime energy storage for redistribution at night and/or to distant locations at higher prices. One alone would be a holly grail, but diversification calls for all three and the markets are ripe for it. Buyers beware.

Company2

Purpose of the presentation: Educate entrepreneurs on a “green business” perspective derived from ten years of R&D and product marketing.

The Idea: “green” has taken an unfortunate connotation of either fashionably exploitable business angle or expensive luxury that costs businesses a lot. Both are wrong.

Products: Water-based, human and environment safe chemical cleaning products for industrial processes, aviation, gun cleaning, and more to come.

Use of funds: N/A – Company2 need none, they are offered more they want to take, the business is profitable and fast growing

Take away: Company2 has demonstrated, over ten years, that environmental and human safety offer a) profitable markets for the producers and b) can be demonstrated to reduce TCO for the customer that switches from noxious chemicals (the only ones available in the past) to the more worker and environment safe products available today. C) There are great opportunities for entrepreneurs, and their angels, that want to pursue a similar business strategy.

The key to Company2’s market penetration was and is to effectively communicate and demonstrate the value proposition to prospective customers who are frequently under great pressure and incentives from legacy suppliers to continue past practices. It takes time, commitment and tenacity. The pay off takes time.

So why does this matter? Because in the current euphoria to go green with our investments and to benefit from the ongoing global technological transition, it is easy to seek an end-run with some magic sauce. It may be possible but unlikely. More probably the returns we seek will come from: innovation that creates incremental improvements, education, rigorous analysis of alternatives and serious commitment to a mission. Technological transitions have never been an overnight affair (see railroads, automotives, semiconductors, internet, telecoms, etc) and angel investors will need now as ever due diligence and patience. More importantly, we should seek credible business models, not promoters’ wild promises of world changing magic.

Republished from http://marcoessina.com