The Crisis of Credit Visualized | BusinessBlogs Hub

In the public interest: this is the best explanation of the debt crisis that I've seen in non-technical terms. It took ten years to create a financial industry bomb, will it take ten more to fully digest the consequences? The optimist says yes, only ten: plan accordingly.

The Crisis of Credit Visualized | BusinessBlogs Hub

Belief is the key

As a serial entrepreneur I have experienced many times the thrill of following my own path to success, however I  defined it at that time of my life: change the world, make a fortune, make an insight into reality, whatever.  Eventually all ventures evolved into a state of mind best explained by this picture.  The only way to go forward was to "press on" no matter what, believing that the top of the mountain was not far and then it would be, oh so sweet, downhill all the way.  My mother often asked "how far do you still have to go?".  The answer, always, "I am below the rock, I cannot see, I cannot stop, but I am an optimist, it is not far".  And so the rock slowly got pushed up the mountain with minor "strategic" directional adjustments to suit the landscape, but moved primarily by total commitment powered by belief.

Belief (not stubbornness) is the root of achievement, that internal voice that makes us persist in the game.
Toady we see one such game playing in front of our eyes, on Jeopardy.  It is the latest chapter of IBM's pitting  the machine against the human.  The last match was in 1997 and Garry Kasparov was our knight.  He had belief to spare.  He lost to Deep Blue and went into a deep depression as a result - some mountains are too tall and rocks too big, but letting go is always tough.
How would you like to be the Humans' knight in shining armor: Brad Rutter or Ken Jennings?  It takes true grit and great belief.  In the other corner, despite appearances, it is not Watson, it is the IBM team behind that multicolor-cyberface-cum-mawhawk, with seven years and $1-2 billion worth of dreams and persistence on the line.
 
It is a quixotic battle: like that against Deep Blue before. Watson will eventually win for no other reason that IBM will find the Rutter and Jennings of artificial intelligence and put them to work pushing that rock to the mountain top. In this sense defeat of the Humans is inevitable. It may happen tonight or tomorrow or by an average of three nights (BTW Deep Blue won not all matches, only 3.5 to 2.5 over 7 matches). Perhaps we'll have to wait longer yet, but it will come. Our brightest Humans can make machines "smarter" over time but we have not yet found a repeatable and fast way to make ourselves smarter.

Regardless of who wins Jeopardy, the human ability to imagine, belief and commitment will have won again.  And now go back to pushing your rock, you don't have far to go.

Marco Messina

Roadmaps and Knowledgebase Navigation (KnowNav™)

For nearly ten years I have researched effective uses of "mind mapping" for a variety of communication and collaboration purposes. Part of my research and usability testing was done as Director of Technology Programs at Maricopa Colleges Small Business Development Center in Phoenix, AZ. The opportunity provided by the Maricopa College SBDC to publicly test the results of my research is gratefully acknowledged.

I dislike the term "mind map" originally employed for this technique. I believe it is a confusing term with new-age overtones that has hindered its acceptance and that of derivatives and tools to implement it. For that reason, and for the particular use I make of it, I prefer the terms Roadmap and Roadmapping, which are more descriptive of the knowledge domain navigation process enabled by the map.

Roadmapping is particularly powerful to navigate complex knowledge domains where a problem solution is sought which cannot be readily optimized. In that case, optimizing the exploration and reasoning process is the next best thing. I call this process Knowledgebase Navigation or KnowNav™.

KnowNav™ allows users to explore alternatives and their associated facts through the prism of their personal preferences. To this goal, the domain expert lays out in a roadmap, as objectively as possible, the alternatives and all the judgmental considerations that could be made about each. Users then can navigate the knowledge-base, in an almost random-walk fashion, intuitively attaching relative personal preferences to each of the considerations identified by the expert.

The roadmap's power comes from:

1. ability to taxonomically organize the knowledge-base hiding the overwhelming size of the data set
2. ability to open and close branches at will thereby switching from macro to micro views
3. keep open only the branches relevant to the user at any given moment
4. express options and features in one line statements thereby breaking down the complexity of any concept

The expert's challenge involves:

1. definition of the alternative navigation paths
2. taxonomic organization
3. break down complex ideas until they can be defined in one-liners

Following are some simple and abbreviated examples open to all. Some more detailed roadmaps are available to my consulting clients:

1. Angels' Due Diligence
2. Should I get a Patent?
3. Should I file for a Trademark?
4. Should I apply for a SBIR Grant?

Very large data sets and complex issues can be summarized and detailed so that the end user can navigate them with ease. More details on these methods are contained in my forthcoming book "KnowNav™and Roadmaps: Simply Reasoning About Complex Issues"

I use this technique because, folding and unfolding branches of the roadmap (read carefully the instructions at the top of each map), you can switch from a "30,000 foot" summary view to "detail" view of different parts of the issue and navigate the knowledgebase with continuous reference to the general context.

All content and roadmaps copyright of Marco Messina 2006-2010 KnowNav™ is a trademark of Marco Messina